If you’re hoping for a white winter in Wilmington, you’re not alone. With colder months on the way, many locals (and daydreamers) are asking: Will Wilmington see snow this year? According to recent reporting from StarNews, there’s reason to believe this winter may lean closer to “normal.” StarNewsOnline
Let’s dig into what that means, what history tells us, and what to realistically expect for snow (or not) in the Cape Fear region.
What the Forecasts Are Saying
The article points to NOAA’s 2025-26 long-range winter forecast, which suggests this year could be closer to a typical winter for southeastern North Carolina. StarNewsOnline In short: nothing wildly above or below average, but a possibility for winter weather events that align with what’s typical for the region.
“Closer to normal” in this context means: don’t expect a snowpocalypse, but don’t rule out light snow or ice either.
The Historical Take: Snow in Wilmington Isn’t Common
To understand what’s likely, it helps to know what’s happened in the past:
- Wilmington has a humid subtropical climate, with winters that tend to be mild. Snowfall is rare or very light most years. Wikipedia
- Coastal parts of North Carolina — including Wilmington — often see less than 2 inches of snow per year on average. Wikipedia+1
- That said, extreme or unusual storms have brought snow to the region. A standout: December 1989 delivered nearly 15.3 inches of snow to Wilmington in one storm — a dramatic departure from the norm. Climate Products+1
- More recently, the 2025 Gulf Coast blizzard delivered measurable snowfall to parts of southeastern North Carolina — Wilmington included — with airport records showing 2.6 inches during that event. Wikipedia
So while big snowstorms are rare, they can happen — usually when conditions align unusually well.
What to Expect This Winter (Realistically)
Putting together the long-range forecasts, climate history, and recent patterns, here’s a reasonable picture for Wilmington’s winter:
| Likelihood | What You Might See | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Low to Moderate | Patchy flurries, light snow, or brief wintry mix | More likely in January or February if a cold front and moisture align |
| Low | Significant snow accumulation (several inches or more) | Only during rare, strong coastal storms |
| More Likely | Cold rain, sleet, or mixed precipitation | These are more common in transitional events |
In short: Don’t expect full days of snowfall, but keep an open mind during the deeper cold snaps.
Why Snow Is Tough Along the Coast
A few key reasons snow doesn’t often stick here:
- Ocean influence — The Atlantic Ocean keeps things milder, making it harder for cold air to stay cold enough for snow.
- Boundary lines — Many winter storms (especially near the coast) shift between rain, sleet, or snow depending on just a few degrees of temperature near the ground or aloft.
- Rapid change — Storms often move fast, and warm air from offshore can shift what might have been snow into rain or sleet at the last minute.
Bottom Line: Winter in Wilmington Has Its Surprises
Yes, snow is possible — especially in a “typical” winter — but don’t count on accumulation or long-lasting snow cover. The odds lean toward lighter events, potentially mixed with rain or sleet.